Imagine you are in the room when the Oregon GOP sat down to figure out who to run for Kim Thatcher’s Oregon Senate District 11 seat.

Quick aside, Thatcher can’t run for her seat anymore because she couldn’t manage to make it to work to actually represent her constituents. Her truancy problem was SO bad…(“How bad was it?”)...SO bad, that she was deemed ineligible to run for her seat again. (Badddum-tssss!)

So these Oregon GOP strategists look at their roster of talent to see who they want to pick for Thatcher’s abandoned post. And they find one-term Oregon House Representative Tracy Cramer (R-Gervais) - who barely made an impression in her tenure, and was ousted quickly by a Democrat.

Cramer officially announced her candidacy on August 11 for Oregon’s Senate District 11, which covers northeast Salem, Keizer, Woodburn, and surrounding areas. Republican propaganda rag Oregon Catalyst reports that Thatcher has endorsed Cramer as her successor, citing her community roots, bipartisan approach and, presumably, her willingness to show up for work.

Cramer appears to be positioning herself as a sane conservative, yet her rally cry is something along the lines of “I will fight the evil Portland-owned Democrats.” 

Despite Thatcher’s withering service in office, she did prove hard to dislodge from her State Senate seat. The 11th Senate District is largely considered highly competitive, with 44% of voters registered as nonaffiliated, 27% as Democrats, and 22% as Republicans. Political observers note that the 2026 cycle may tilt in Democrats’ favor due to former President Trump’s unpopularity in Oregon. 

Cramer comes to this race with decent name recognition; forgettable legislative experience and the ability to raise millions. 

Hey, why don’t we take a look at who Cramer intends to serve should she win! Data from ORESTAR, Oregon’s campaign finance database, tells us that Cramer draws big bucks from wealthy benefactors. There’s just a few dark money stops along the way, but the big GOP money seems to find Cramer just fine. 

The very first trend you’ll notice when you look at Cramer’s lifetime Oregon political campaign finance haul of nearly $2 million…she’s gotta lotta rich friends, man. More than you’d suspect a humble farmhand/dental assistant background would have.

Almost 50% of Cramer’s money comes from three entities - Phil Knight; other Republicans; and the real estate industry. 

In fact, most of the money swirling around Cramer’s shaky political career seems to be wealthy individuals and campaign committees just handing each other fat checks.

What you WON’T see in Cramer’s campaign finance records is a hint of any grassroots support. Cramer’s political story isn’t built on people-power, it’s constructed with oligarch cash.

Here’s a quick explanation of who’s behind the political action committees that have fueled half of Cramer’s bankroll.

They should have called this the Phil Knight Burns His Nike Cash. But, alas, the Bring Balance to Salem PAC is a major GOP legislative PAC seeded heavily by Phil Knight to elect Republicans to the Legislature. It’s partisan infrastructure, not policy-specific. BBS is about flipping seats more than any single bill. (OPB; Willamette Week; Oregon Capital Insider)

Outside of Knight’s gargantuan money bomb meant to splash state politics (it didn’t), BBS is mostly timber barons. 

Top Contributors (incoming money)

So if nearly ⅓ of Cramer’s entire political existence is built on cash from these oligarchs…who do you think she’ll be motivated to represent? You and me? Or her rich friends?

This is the fundraising arm powering GOP House Republicans in Oregon. Here’s the funny thing about Evergreen Oregon PAC - it’s really just Phil Knight in a trench coat. Not really. It’s more like Phil Knight (via the Bring Balance to Salem PAC); a handful of candidate committees (all the usual state GOP suspects); and some timber douchebags…in a trench coat. 

Here’s an interesting look at just how wealthy Cramer’s friends are. Of all the recorded contributions to the Evergreen Oregon PAC here’s a look at composition and concentration:

Again, I don’t know many actual, regular people that could pony up more than $5k to contribute to a state-level, lower-house candidate.

You might think to yourself, “Real estate isn’t a partisan industry.” And you’d be wrong.

It’s true that ORPAC represents a wider base of support than the other heavy hitters that have powered Cramer’s political ambitions. Around 2/3 of their contributions come from small-dollar donations (under $100).

But check out where that money goes. In addition to Cramer, here are the top recipients of ORPAC cash:

All of these folks are Republicans, except Tobias Read. 

Based on campaign finance data, it’s completely reasonable to suggest ORPAC is a machine that funnels the small dollar donations of its members (realtors, etc.) into the coffers of Republican politicians who, in theory, help advance a realtor-friendly agenda. 

Except, in Oregon, Republicans can’t seem to muster more than a super-minority position. So if I were in real estate (or knew someone in real estate), I’d probably want to know why my contributions are being wasted on a party that can’t even represent me. 

Who. Fucking. Knows. 

So far, she has raised a few bucks in this very early primary election cycle.

But…probably. Why not, right? These rich turds aren’t shy about wasting millions on candidates that either don’t win, or can’t do anything meaningful once in office. Phil Knight doesn’t even feel the impact on his wallet after dumping millions to help Republicans purchase a few seats. Why would he stop? 

But one thing seems clear. Democrats better step up for this race. It’s a competitive seat against a party being drowned in daily national/global scandals.

**If anyone gives a shit, I do use AI-powered tools to produce this newsletter. Mostly ChatGPT. It helps in compiling and analyzing data; researching dense background material; and keeping my thoughts and ideas organized and well-structured. Also to create custom images, although I try to use Canva when I can. Guys, these tools save so much time and are probably the only way I can find the time to write. I understand that many folks have many issues with AI, so I thought I should be transparent about my use.